Why do LFP batteries dominate grid storage?
LFP and contenders in the race for affordable and safe stationary energy storage
Welcome to Lithium Horizons! This newsletter explores the latest developments, companies, and ideas at the frontiers of energy materials. Subscribe below to get the next article delivered straight to your inbox:
Not long ago, forecasts painted a very different picture of the battery energy storage system (BESS) landscape. Graphs like the one in Figure 1 predicted that by 2030 LFP (lithium iron phosphate) would claim around 40% of the market, while nickel-rich chemistries such as NMC (lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide) and NCA (lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide) would still hold more than 20%.
Fast-forward to 2023, and the reality looks very different: LFP already accounted for roughly 80% of new storage deployments, NMC survives mainly in legacy installations, and NCA has all but vanished from the sector.
This rise of LFP owes much to the scale and momentum of China’s battery industry and is a sharp reminder of how quickly market dynamics can overturn even the most confident forecasts. Still, patterns are emerging, and by studying them we can make informed (though humble) guesses about what lies ahead.
